Analyst Mat Piscatella believes the battle for the best-selling game in 2022 comes down to two titles. Elden Ring and Call of Duty: Modern Warfare II.
In a blog post, the NPD Group analyst discussed the video game market’s continued decline and shared his 2022 forecast. According to projections, U.S. consumer spending on video games (hardware, content and accessories) will reach $55.5 billion.
That’s down more than $5 billion on 2021’s superior $60.8 billion figure. Piscatella speculates this decline may be due to “the return of experiential spending, higher prices in everyday spending categories such as food and fuel, the uncertain supply of video game console hardware and certain accessories such as gamepads, and a lighter release slate of games, among others.”
Best Selling Game 2022 – Elden Ring vs. Modern Warfare II
Most notable among his 2022 predictions is the success of Elden Ring. It sold an incredible 13.4 million copies between February 25th and March 31st 2022. Now Piscatella projects that it will be only the third game since 2009 to unseat a Call of Duty title as the yearly best-seller.
“Elden Ring will finish as 2022’s best-selling premium game in the U.S. market, marking only the 3rd time since 2009 that a Call of Duty franchise release does not lead the market.”
Mat Piscatella, NPD Group
So, what other games have dethroned Call of Duty in the last 14 years? Only Grand Theft Auto V in 2013 and Red Dead Redemption II in 2018 can claim that distinction, according to gamesindustry.biz. What an incredible achievement for Elden Ring.
This makes an excellent case for more single-player experiences, which have long been considered less profitable by publishers.
Of course, Modern Warfare II could still outperform predictions and take the top spot. However, Elden Ring surpassed Call of Duty: Vanguard‘s sales in April 2022, which certainly puts it in a strong position against the next CoD.
Despite Elden Ring‘s individual success, Piscatella says “Call of Duty will remain the U.S. market’s best-selling premium gaming franchise for a record 14th consecutive year.”
What will 2022’s best-selling games be?
Elsewhere in the report, Mat Piscatella said the following titles are projected to be 2022’s best-selling games. Unless they’re delayed, of course.
- Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2
- Elden Ring
- God of War Ragnarök
- Gotham Knights
- Horizon: Forbidden West
- LEGO Star Wars: The Skywalker Saga
- Madden NFL 23
- NBA 2K23
- Pokémon Legends: Arceus
- Pokémon Scarlet/Violet
One disappointing prediction is that hardware shortages won’t end any time soon. “Hardware shortages will continue into 2023, particularly on PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X, while potentially impacting other segments such as VR.”, Piscatella said.
Do you think Elden Ring deserves to beat Call of Duty this year? Let us know in the comment section below and don’t forget to check out our other gaming articles…
